Grifter's Gonna Grift
Musings on the Trump memecoin weekend
A few loosely related musings on the President launching the $TRUMP memecoin. Some of these might even be contradictory:
Two things can be true at once:
Trumpcoin is both stupid and embarrassing
Trumpcoin signals a significant shift in U.S. fintech policy towards a far more ‘open’ approach
Who is Trumpcoin embarrassing for? Anyone who takes it too seriously. That means both the euphoric fans as well as the steaming haters.
Two camps are emerging within the crypto space, based on my timeline:
Depressed - bad for crypto, bad for society
Acceptance/Excitement - crypto will eat everything, time to prepare
The second camp is currently winning. Whether you like it or not, I think ‘time to prepare’ is the right mindset.
Normally the wealthy and elites avoid wild west cowboy games and lowbrow efforts at money and status.
$TRUMP and $MELANIA are what happens when the elites roll around in the gutter with the rest of the degens.
Traditional finance has become a game of degen gamblers as well. The top ETF of 2024 was a 2x levered NVDA ETH, and 0DTE options (options that expire the same day they are traded dominate index trading.
Regulators have already blessed the gamification of markets by the largest players.
Memecoins thrive on the attention economy, and Trump is the chief salesman of culture capital.
I do think that the odds have increased that we’ll see one or a few mega-impactful crypto-explosions in the next year or two (bad).
By launching a cryptocurrency, Trump has to live with the reality that some amount of his political clout is tied to an asset that the open market - and not he directly - controls.
If $TRUMP crashes 90%, you bet that it’s going to be mentioned in Congress.
$TRUMP is obviously a total grift, evidenced by the $MELANIA release a day later.
One thing to know about grifters is that they always eventually reveal themselves. Even when they don’t do anything explicit, you can always tell when someone is a grifter just by having a normal conversation with them.
Grifters gonna grift, man.
Crypto is simply better technology, and in the long run laws follow technology.
Every category of value will be run over public and open networks, and new ones will be formed.
Time to prepare.
The biggest ‘big picture’ question that remains, is whether we are seeing the beginnings of a once-in-a-generation technological shift start to cross the chasm now, or are we still due for our true 2000 internet bubble crash, where 99% of chains and apps today legitimately die and never come back.
There is a chance, however small, that not a single of the big blockchains today are resilient enough to power the future, and crypto will go through a true apocalyptic event first before we get there.
I wouldn’t bet my chips on it, but it should be mentioned.
Purely on it’s own, the President launching a memecoin is the kind of thing that could easily be a top signal.
I doubt it in this case, but I’m starting to see some signs of questionable behavior from my fellow crypto friends.
For the traders, my inclination is that the next six months is the time to scale out to some degree and book some profit, not go deeper in.
A lot of people tell themselves that they're long term investors when they're really just looking for a quick 100x.
Watch out for anyone that gives advice without understanding their own nature. They are the worst people to listen to.
I’ve seen many people that claim to be in crypto for the long term kicking themselves that they missed the $TRUMP trade. I think that this exposes your inner nature.
I was online when $TRUMP launched, by the time it went to $9B FDV it seemed likely that it was real. I did not buy it, will not buy it, and am simply not interested in these types of games.
I have no issue with people making money, but I know too many people that tell themselves that they’re in it for the long term (“for the tech!”, but are constantly refreshing X looking for the next hit-it-big play. I think that this is a guaranteed way to lose - you are a walking contradiction.
Know who you are. I’m not claiming any moral high ground, it’s fine to be grinding in the low cap trenches. It’s totally fine to buy $TRUMP if you want to, whether you love him or hate him. Zero judgement by me.
But to succeed as an investor or trader you have to understand yourself. Make sure you do.
The crypto market is trading so stupidly these last few weeks. No real ties to reality or fundamentals (even less than usual, ha). Just massive swings based on which way people expect other people to trade.
Remember, crypto is the only market where most sellers and shorters are fundamentally long over a long enough time horizon (meaning, most people who go short actually expect BTC to be higher in the medium/long term future).
Don’t get shaken out by a nonsensical market. Just chill and ride the wave.
A few years ago I wrote a newsletter called Bitcoin is Water. I talked about how Bitcoin is neutral technology that has no ideology and reflects whatever you want to see in it. This remains true about crypto.
Some see the next evolution in the internet and financial technology.
Others see endless scams.
Some see financial rebellion.
Others see dystopia.
Some see comedy and laugh at the nonsense.
Others seethe.
Some see easy profit or the ideological movement.
Others see suckers and a way to get rich quick.
Crypto is good. Crypto is bad.
Crypto is water.
Personally, I had fun this weekend and found it all both preposterous and predictable. If you have your mind right and can avoid getting lost in the sauce, it’s going to be a fun 2025. Cheers, friends.
Great musings friend. I had fun this weekend too and didn't pay attention to Trump - the man or the coin. Wouldn't have bought it in any sense. I've sold my Tesla stock and though I still hold some $DOGE, I'll sell that when it hits my target too. It's going to be impossible to not pay attention to Trump moving forward - but we have plenty of time (a lifetime in my opinion) to get used to him and develop the kind of natural attention blockers we already have for so many other things. Thanks as always for sharing your thoughts and consistently being true to who you are.